College Monte Carlo

Research

Data-driven research on US undergraduate admissions — matching theory, institutional data, behavioral models, and empirical analysis. The work underneath every simulated admission cycle.

223 documents · 8 sections
Datasets
High Schools 307 high schools Composite ratings, SAT ranges, GPA, enrollment, Ivy+ placement, and common hooks across the full school dataset. View dataset → Colleges 300 colleges Selectivity ratings, admit rates, SAT/GPA, yield, and testing policy for every college in the research set. View dataset →
05 documents

Research Overview

High-level syntheses and key findings across all research.

US College Admissions: A Decade-by-Decade HistoryAmerican college admissions underwent one of the most dramatic transformations of any social institution in the twentieth century.39 min→Hidden Rules of Elite AdmissionsElite college admissions operate on a fundamentally different set of rules than the meritocratic process most families imagine. Data from the SFFA v.13 min→Competitive Landscape: Admissions Tools & SimulatorsIf you have a junior at home, you have probably already discovered that the college admissions help market is sprawling, opaque, and priced across four…18 min→Naviance, Kickstart & Admissions Tool Deep DiveIf your child is starting their college list, you have probably already heard of Naviance.10 min→ABM Literature Analysis: Reardon 2016, Assayed 2023–2025 & ContextSynthesised from deep-dive research on Reardon et al. (2016), Assayed et al. (2023–2025), and the broader matching-market simulation literature.17 min→
06 documents

Colleges & Admissions Data

Admissions stats, yield management, and what really happens inside admissions offices.

HYPSM Common Data Set StatsComprehensive admissions data for Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, and MIT compiled from Common Data Sets (2023-24, 2024-25) and official institutional…8 min→CommonApp & NACAC Admissions DataCommonApp publishes annual "End-of-Season Reports" tracking first-year application trends across all ~1,100 member institutions.7 min→Top 20–50 College CDS DataUCLA: Does not use SAT/ACT in admissions (UC system test-free policy). No SAT percentiles reported in CDS.6 min→College Statistics ReferenceData compiled from Common Data Sets (CDS) and official admissions releases for the 2024-2025 admissions cycle (primarily Class of 2029 admits).18 min→Enrollment Management: How Colleges Hit Yield TargetsIf admissions feels less like a meritocracy and more like a puzzle with hidden rules, you're not imagining it.9 min→How Colleges Decide Who Gets InBy the time the last acceptance letter arrives in late March, most families think the hard part is over. It isn't.7 min→
04 documents

Students & High Schools

Feeder school effects, extracurriculars, and what student profiles actually win admits.

Feeder School DataThe National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) is the most comprehensive source of student-level postsecondary enrollment data in the U.S., covering ~3,600…7 min→MIT Extracurricular ProfilesMIT evaluates applicants holistically across eight stated dimensions. Several directly involve extracurricular evaluation:6 min→MIT Race & Gender Admissions DataMIT, like other elite institutions, practiced race-conscious holistic admissions.4 min→MIT Athletic Hook AnalysisMIT operates one of the largest Division III athletic programs in the nation, fielding 33 varsity sports teams.5 min→
03 documents

Student Decision Behavior

How students choose colleges, build lists, and respond to financial aid.

Why Students Pick One College Over AnotherGetting in is only half the story. Once the acceptance letters arrive, families face a harder question: which one to choose.8 min→How Students Build Their College ListsEvery spring, families ask the same questions: How many schools should we apply to? Is Early Decision worth it?8 min→How Students Fall Into Application ArchetypesMost applicants don't pick a college list from scratch. They follow a pattern shaped by who they are and where they come from — and admissions officers…6 min→
02 documents

How Admissions Matching Works

Why college admissions is the way it is — explained through matching market theory.

College Admissions as a Matching MarketResearch on how US college admissions fits (or fails to fit) the stable matching framework from market design theory, drawing on the work of Gale-Shapley…15 min→K-12 School Choice MechanismsThe Boston mechanism (also called the Immediate Acceptance mechanism) operates through sequential rounds where assignments are final:13 min→
09 documents

Market Dynamics

Application inflation, cross-admit patterns, post-SFFA demographics, and financial aid.

Application Inflation SpiralThe college admissions market in the US is currently in a self-reinforcing inflationary cycle.2 min→Cross-Admit Dynamics & Revealed PreferencesEvery spring, a small number of high school seniors face a problem most families would envy: they get into both Harvard and Stanford.11 min→Post-SFFA Demographic ShiftsTwo full admissions cycles after the Supreme Court's SFFA ruling, the demographic effects are larger and more persistent than initially modeled in the…13 min→Financial Aid & Yield ElasticityGetting in is only half the story. Once the acceptance letters land, families have to choose — and money quietly drives more of that choice than most…10 min→Geographic Diversity in AdmissionsComprehensive research on how geography shapes admissions outcomes at selective colleges.14 min→Demonstrated Interest by CollegeDemonstrated interest (DI) refers to the signals a prospective student sends to a college indicating genuine intent to enroll if admitted.12 min→SAT Section Weighting: Math vs. EBRWDo colleges — especially STEM-focused institutions — weight SAT Math and EBRW (Evidence-Based Reading and Writing) sections differently in admissions…9 min→Waitlist Mechanics & StatisticsKey aggregate finding: According to NACAC, colleges on average admit 20% of students off the waitlist.18 min→Summer Melt ResearchSummer melt is the phenomenon where students who have been accepted to a college, signaled intent to enroll (often by submitting an enrollment deposit by…17 min→
08 documents

College Consulting Industry

College consulting firms, their business models, and market dynamics.

College Consulting Industry OverviewWalk into any high-achieving suburban high school in April of junior year and you will find a quiet second economy running alongside the official guidance…30 min→Crimson Education: Company ResearchCrimson Education is the biggest name in private college counseling, and for many parents weighing a five- or six-figure check, it is also the most…16 min→IvyWise: Company ResearchIvyWise is the original high-end private college counseling firm, and for most families it is the most expensive option on the table.21 min→Collegewise: Company ResearchCollegewise has guided more than 35,000 students since founder Kevin McMullin started it from his apartment in 1999.24 min→College Essay Guys: Company ResearchCollege Essay Guy (CEG) is a Los Angeles-based, digital-first college essay coaching brand founded in 2011 by Ethan Sawyer, a former screenwriter and…24 min→InGenius Prep & Adjacent PlayersIf you've started looking into private college counseling, InGenius Prep is one of the names you'll run into quickly.20 min→CollegeVine: Company ResearchThe short version: CollegeVine is the most popular free chancing tool on the market, used by 2.4 million students.19 min→Chancing Engines Landscape: 50+ Tools ComparedWe identified 50+ admissions prediction tools across 6 tiers — from billion-user platforms (Naviance, CollegeVine) to single-developer GitHub repos.14 min→
186 profiles

College Profiles

Research profiles for colleges: admissions stats, SAT/GPA ranges, demographics, and net cost data from Common Data Set filings.

American U→Amherst→Arizona State→Bates→Boston College→Bowdoin→Bowdoin Colby Bates→Brandeis→Brandeis Lehigh→Brown→Brown Dartmouth→Bryn Mawr→Brynmawr Mtholyoke→Bu→Bucknell→Caltech→Caltech Johns Hopkins→Carleton→Carleton Grinnell→Carnegie Mellon→Carnegie Mellon Washu→Case Western→Claremont Mckenna→Clemson→Colby→Colgate→Colgate Hamilton→Columbia→Columbia Upenn→Connecticut College→Cooper Union→Cornell→Cornell Duke→Cu Boulder→Cwru Rochester→Dartmouth→Davidson→Davidson Wl→Dickinson→Drexel→Duke→Elon→Emory→Famu→Fordham→Gatech Rpi→George Mason→Georgetown→Georgia Tech→Grinnell→Gwu→Gwu American→Hamilton→Hampton→Harvard→Harvard Yale→Harvey Mudd→Haverford→Hofstra→Howard→Indiana→Johns Hopkins→Kenyon→Lehigh→Loyola Chicago→Loyola Marymount→Macalester→Macalester Oberlin→Mcgill→Michigan→Michigan Emory→Michigan State→Middlebury→Mit→Morehouse→Mount Holyoke→Naval Academy→Nc At→Nc State→Neu Bu→Northeastern→Northwestern→Northwestern Uchicago→Notre Dame→Notre Dame Georgetown→Nyu→Nyu Fordham→Oberlin→Ohio State→Olin→Osu Psu→Penn State→Pepperdine→Pitzer→Pomona→Pomona Cmc→Princeton→Princeton Mit→Purdue→Reed→Reed Kenyon→Rice→Risd→Rochester→Rpi→Rutgers→Santa Clara→Scripps→Scripps Pitzer→Smith→Smu→Spelman→Stanford→Stevens→Swarthmore→Swarthmore Harveymudd→Syracuse→Tcu→Temple→Texas Am→Tufts→Tufts Boston College→Tulane→Tuskegee→U Alabama→U Arizona→U Denver→U Florida→U Georgia→U Iowa→U Maryland→U Miami→U Minnesota→U Oregon→U Pittsburgh→U Richmond→U South Carolina→U Toronto→Ubc→Uc Berkeley→Uc Davis→Uc Irvine→Ucdavis Uci→Uchicago→Ucla→Uconn→Ucsb→Ucsd→Ucsd Ucsb→Uf Uga→Uiuc→Uiuc Purdue→Umass Amherst→Unc→Unc Wm→Upenn→Usc→Usc Smu→Ut Austin→Utaustin Tamu→Uva→Uva Ucla→Uw→Uw Madison→Uwmadison Uwseattle→Vanderbilt→Vanderbilt Rice→Vassar→Vassar Haverford→Villanova→Virginia Tech→Vt Ncstate→Wake Forest→Washington Lee→Washu→Wellesley→Wellesley Smith→Wesleyan→West Point→Wfu Tulane→William Mary→Williams→Williams Amherst Middlebury→Wpi→Xavier Louisiana→Yale→